Human Victory Cigar

One reasonably accurate way to think about the overall health of the NBA is through analysis of the average television ratings for the Finals. Higher ratings mean more fans and more money for the owners and subsequently the players.

Over the past 31 years the Finals’ broadcasts have averaged a 12.5 rating. This means that on average 12.5% of all U.S. households able to receive television signals (regardless of source) watched the NBA finals. To place this number in context, the average NBA finals game over the last 31 years would rank fifth on this television season’s ranking of top rated programs, just a bit behind Dancing with the Stars (Is this a weird country or what?). Average finals ratings have gone from a high of 18.7 for the 1998 Bulls/Jazz series to a low of 6.5 for the 2003 Spur/Nets extravaganza. For comparison, the highest rated NFL Superbowl of all time was in 1982 with a 49.1 rating. Four of the top ten most highly rated programs of all time are Superbowls (though still beaten by the finale of M*A*S*H, an episode of Dallas, and part 8 of Roots).

Finals ratings were in bad shape from 1978 to 1981, averaging an 8.0 rating after a couple of good years in which the games had averaged a 12.1. In the years from 1976 to the hiring of David Stern’s term as NBA commissioner in 1984 the league Finals averaged a 10.4 rating. Beginning in 1985 and ending in 2006, the Finals averaged a 13.3 rating. But, ratings were already on the way up when Stern was hired – 1982, 1983, and 1984 were as high as most any subsequent three year period averaging a 12.5 rating.

Common knowledge has it that only Finals with big markets represented can pull big ratings. Comparing the rating to the sum of households within the two TV markets represented I find very little relationship between market size and rating. Total market size explains only about two percent of the variation statistically in year to year Finals ratings.

As the table below shows, although there is a slight difference in average rating between big markets and smaller ones (12.7 versus 12.5), there is tremendous variation within the two ranges (from High to Low). A large market team playing another large market team produces slightly higher ratings, but not consistently, and the large market ratings can still be quite low.

There is a bit of a kick when one of the top three markets plays. When either New York, Los Angeles, or Chicago is playing the average Finals rating is 13.7 compared to 10.5 when neither are involved. Even so, if we drop out the bad years in the late 70s and early 80s and only compare from 1982 on the gap declines substantially. When a big three market is playing between 1982 and 2006 the average rating is 14.0 versus 13.2 when only other markets are involved. And this difference completely goes away when we consider the Michael Jordan effect.

Without a doubt, Michael Jordan was and remains the single biggest draw the NBA has ever had. Four of the top six most highly rated finals include Jordan and the Bulls. Jordan’s six title years rank 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 9th among all finals since 1976. Together, the Finals with the Bulls averaged a 16.7 rating, 46% higher than the average across all non-Jordan years since 1976. It’s pretty easy to see why the league would really love another Jordan. In fact, it’s pretty easy to see why the league needs and must have another Jordan (or two).

The table below shows the average Finals rating for each team that has appeared since 1976, win or lose. Teams have been split where appropriate by generation – e.g., the Magic led Lakers versus the Shaq led Lakers. So, the Phoenix Suns with Charles Barkley played in one Finals series with an overall rating of 17.9. Fortunately for the Suns they were playing Jordan’s Bulls since their only other Finals appearance (against the Celtics) garnered an 11.5 rating, below the overall average. The same can be said for the Jazz and the Kemp/Payton Sonics who were also playing the Bulls in their highly rated series.

With all due respect to the wonderful folks on the muddy river in San Antonio, for the league to prosper the Spurs cannot be allowed to play in another Finals, unless they can drag Michael Jordan out of retirement. Same for the Nets who command zero ratings respect at the national level despite sort of being from New York. The only thing comparable in modern times to the dismal Nets is the 2006 ratings disaster of the Heat and Mavericks. Shaq may be the most dominant big man of all time, but not many folks are coming in on nice Spring nights to watch him play in the Finals.

So, the next time you see LeBron or Wade plastered on a wall, don’t fret. It’s only the league trying to generate some more magic like it had with Jordan.