Human Victory Cigar

Twenty games in the 2006/2007 edition of the Detroit Pistons are four games worse than last year at this time with a record of 13 up and 7 down. That’s good enough for the eighth best record in the league and second best, behind the upstart Magic, in the East. Eleven of the first twenty have been at home and the team has one of their two West Coast trips under their belts.

There have been some bad losses, most notably against the Bobcats and the Blazers, but also some quality wins against Houston, Miami, and Dallas. There have been a few close losses, Utah, New Orleans, and Portland, that could have gone either way.

Offensively there have been some big changes in how the team plays. A small ball lineup (if you can count the 6’ 9” Prince with his Manute Bol wingspan as small) has been introduced and has played well (#3 below). However, the most productive lineup has been the four remaining starters with Dale Davis. Davis brings the same kind of game as Ben Wallace (though certainly less of it) and it seems the team still feels most comfortable with that kind of center on the floor.

Note that any lineup that includes Mohammed is near the bottom in terms of the difference in own and opposition points scored. Perhaps that is less a problem with Mohammed (though he does have issues) and more a problem with the team learning how to take advantage of what he brings. Putting aside that Mohammed would foul out of each game if he were to play 35 minutes, his other 35 minute stats (see the last section below) are not all that far from what Ben Wallace produced last year. Nonetheless, the integration of Mohammed must at this point be deemed a failure given that he is currently averaging less than twenty minutes a game.

Defensively this is a very different Pistons team for several reasons, in particular the loss of Ben Wallace and the ongoing changes to the rules that basically outlaw the team’s old Larry Brown based man to man. Certainly they are playing a much wider range of defensive schemes than ever before. And just as certainly it has taken more time for the team to adjust to those changes than to the offensive ones. At times the defense has looked very shaky, but at others, particularly in the last week, they have moved seamlessly between defensive schemes and they did play a brilliant defensive game against Dallas. It’s probably safe to evaluate the offense at this early point in the season, but it will take the next twenty games to be able to measure the defense fully.

Team Statistics
In many ways this year’s team is a nearly perfect twin for last year’s record setting one. Points scored, shooting, rebounding, and turnovers all closely match last season’s numbers. This year’s Pistons average 96.3 points per game versus 96.8 for all of last season.

However, there have been some changes too. Last year’s team held the opposition to 90.2 points per game while this season they give up 94.2. The average margin of victory has dropped from +7.3% to +2.2%. Assists are down this year by nearly four per game even though Billups is only down 0.2 per game. The drop may be due to a difference in how the team is playing, with Billups driving a bit more, Prince backing his man down a bit more, Sheed taking a couple more shots from down low, and the entrance of Murray who tends to make his own shots.

Then there is the Ben Wallace impact. At least some of the overall defensive difference can probably be attributed to Big Ben, but there are other more measurable impacts from his departure too. This year’s team is a much better free throw shooting squad, coming up from 23^rd in the league last season to 8^th so far this year (+1.7 points per game from the line). And although rebounding has remained the same (40.6 this year versus 40.5 last year, 11.2 this year offensive versus 11.9 last year), the hustle stats, steals and blocks, drop by over one per game, from 4^th best in the league last year to 14^th this year.

Player Statistics

The table below compares total player production for the first quarter of this season (YTD) to the total for last season. Billups accounted for 18.3% of total team Sprocket Points last season. So far this year he was raised his importance to the team and is contributing 19.1% of total production, nearly a 4% increase. Everyone remaining of the best starting five in the league has increased his importance to the team this season. Prince has upped the ante to the tune of +34%. The sixth man, McDyess, has been less important to the team so far. In total, the consistent players last year to this year (those on the team in both years) have increased their share of total team production form 72% to 85%, with big increases from the bench holdovers.

Obviously the departure of Ben Wallace left a big hole to fill. Last season Ben was the most important Piston in terms of statistical production accounting for 20% of total team Sprocket Points. So far, Mohammed has brought in about half of Wallace’s overall statistical contribution to the team (in a little over half the minutes). Murray has also been important, contributing more off the bench this season than any non-starter other than McDyess last year. Together the incoming trio of Murray, Mohammed, and Dupree contribute over twice the share of production as the outgoing quartet of Evans, Delk, Acker, and Cato.

Last year the Pistons top six players played substantially more minutes than the top six from any other team in the league. This year starter rest was to be a priority. As can be seen in the table below, decreases in the minutes allocated to the starters with the exception of Mohammed have yet to be had. All four starters remaining from last year are playing more minutes per game this season.

Minutes have increased for Billups, Hamilton, Prince, Rasheed Wallace, and the bench trio of Delfino, Maxiell, and Davis. To place the Pistons minutes in perspective note that Billups ranks 23^rd in the league in minutes per game, Hamilton 29^th, Prince 35^th, and Wallace 46^th. Five players so far this year are averaging more than 40 minutes per game (Iverson, Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Redd, and Lebron James), with six more above 39 per game.

The key statistics of points, rebounds, and the sum of steals and blocks are shown below by player comparing last year’s regular season to this season so far.

So far the comparison between Ben Wallace and Nazr Mohammed has not been good. Mohammed’s tendency to pick up quick fouls has sent him to the bench early and often, where he remains marooned. The table below takes Mohammed’s stats and projects them up to the same number of minutes played by Wallace last season (35.2 per game). Putting aside fouls (Mohammed would foul out somewhere around the 35 minute mark on average in every game), the comparison is interesting. Mohammed would outscore Wallace by five points per game but every other category favors the headbanded man with the ‘fro.

Below is another table that looks at players on an equalized basis. Here Sprocket Points are equalized to the average number of minutes played by a Pistons starter. Billups and Wallace still lead the team though Mohammed makes a strong case as does Dale Davis. Delfino is more productive than Murray on a equalized basis.

Overall, well, things could have been a lot worse. Dropping the four time DPOY and in effect not replacing him certainly has had an impact on how the team plays defense. So how does this team compare to last year? I’ll argue that a comparison of this team’s first twenty games to last year’s first twenty may not be appropriate for several reasons. First, last year’s team as it turns out was playing well over its head at the beginning of the season. Second, somewhere over the course of last season the rules regarding how one could play defense began to shift. I’ll argue that comparing the first twenty this year to the end of last season is a better apples to apples look.

If we look at games 58-77 of last season (the last 20 not counting the final five “throw-away” games), the Pistons had a record of 15 and 5, two games better than the first twenty this season. I won’t argue that Ben Wallace is worth an extra two games (despite feeling that he probably is), but I think you can safely say that integrating a new starter, making some fairly substantial changes to the offense and defense the team plays, bringing Murray in off the bench, and playing Delfino more is enough disruption to account for a couple of extra losses. Machts nichts?

All in all though those kinds of disruptions ought to be behind the team. It’s the next twenty games that will show their true nature. Stay tuned.