Human Victory Cigar

Courtesy of mikhail1973 @ www.pistonsforum.com

Season 2006/2007

Record 50-32

The best season in team’s history. No, not really, not that. Maybe the best play-off season in the team’s history. No, still not it. Not the entire play-offs, more likely one series. Maybe even a single game, not a series. And not by a team, but by one player.

Offseason

Draft

No picks

Key Trades

Acquired: Devin Brown and Cedric Simmons from Hornets.

Left: Scott Pollard and David Wesley.

Unsigned: Sasha Pavlovic and Anderson Varejao

Offseason grade: N/A

Season 2007/2008

The team hasn’t changed a bit. The same coach, same leader, and the same players (other than a couple of holdouts). Everyone who is predicting a fall for the team is in for a disappointment. The team is going to remain to be inconvenient to play against as it was during the past season and the season prior to that. Cleveland is not necessarily only LeBron. It is also a sticky defense and the ability to make the opposition play Cavs tempo, Cavs game. It is a very good home team that could explode in front of the home fans. This is when the team runs.

What are team’s issues?

1. A point guard and a shooting guard. The team fills the hole with oft-injured Hughes, veteran Snow and young Gibson. Cleveland media reports that Hughes worked on his shot this off-season. But it won’t solve Cleveland’s issues.

2. Only one question to Pavlovic – why out of 30 NBA teams he had to join the one where his natural position is being occupied by LBJ?

3. The front court has its limitations. Against weaker opposition they look good, but they are nowhere near as effective against stronger teams.

4. The team has no reliable scorer other than LeBron. If he is doubled he has nobody to pass to who can knock the shot down.

LeBron James is improving his game. He is working out all the kinks, all the technical errors, and improves his form. There are still some holes in his game which haven’t completely disappeared by they are getting lesser and smaller all the time. He always had athletic ability and court vision, now he is rounding into a more complete player. He moves a lot quicker and smoother, he rarely gets into the crowded area under the rim, he makes better decisions at the critical moments, and he can attack from any distance. Actually, he always attacked from all distances, now he is just a lot more efficient at it. And that’s exactly how he played for the US team this summer. The Spurs beat down was easily predictable, but a sweep-pill wasn’t any sweeter because of that. James wants to get back to the finals to take another crack at it.

Note of importance

Daniel “Boobie” Gibson. The guy blossomed during the playoffs. He is quick and fearless. Born and raised in Texas. During the sixths game against Pistons, when Pistons fans thought that it was all a bad dream and they were going to wake up any minute, this guy came off the bench and each of his 3-point makes (5 for 5) made Flip Saunders cringe as if he was electrocuted.

Bottom Line

Cleveland didn’t change, but conference did. So will the environment and playoff opponents. I don’t foresee another trip to the finals.

Playoffs – yes
Championship – no

Courtesy of mikhail1973 @ www.pistonsforum.com

Season 2006/2007

Record 28-54

The fortune turned its back on the Bucks. Redd and Villanueva missed a half of the season each. Bucks player of the year in 2005/2006 Bobbie Simmons didn’t even make it onto the court. Milwaukee finished the year with 28th place and 6th draft spot.

Offseason

Draft

Yi Jianlian and Ramon Sessions.

A ghost from China: everyone heard of him, some say they even saw him. Nobody knows how old he really is. It is anyone’s guess how many minutes will he get.

Key Trades

Acquired: Desmond Mason returned. Also Jake Voskuhl and Royal Ivey. Milwaukee is short on guards, so Mason will most likely see some playing time at the shooting guard spot subbing for resting Redd.
Left: Earl Boykins, Lin Greer, Ruben Patterson, Brian Skinner.

Offseason grade: C

Season 2007/2008

Milwaukee’s defense is one of the worst in the league. Bogut is not strong enough to bang with most of his opponents. Mo Williams not heavy enough against any opponent. And when basketball god created Michael Redd, all of the talent went into the offensive game. And Ruben Patterson, the only good defender Bucks had, left the team this summer. Don’t expect any defensive improvements from this team.

Offense is another story. There are two reasons for the effective offense that Bucks display:

1. Tall quick players that can pass the ball. First of all it relates to Bogut, who is one of the best at that in the entire NBA.
2. Set of shooters led by Redd (26ppg).

This combination allows Milwaukee to remain in top 10 in NBA in scoring and field goal percentage. Addition of Mason and return of Simpson along with the full season from Redd and Villanueva should help to maintain the offensive production.

When the team decided to build around Michael Redd first thought or maybe even a reflective reaction was – mistake! Who do they rely on? What goals can achieve team that is lead by a shooter? If you think about it his game is best suited for the role player. Two years past since that time. Milwaukee had one solid season. Redd adopted, consistently plays better, became one of the best scorers in the NBA and doesn’t look like just a shooting specialist anymore. The contract that Redd signed at that time looks quite reasonable.

Bucks have a decent bench – Ivey will sub for Williams, Bell will fill in for 1, 2, and 3, Simmons will be a combo-forward, Gadzuric – fast and athletic center. They will have emphasis on the quick frontline that lacks size and strength.

Note of importance

Charlie Villanueva. Regardless of competition from Simmons and many injuries (he had several, one just recently) he should start showing his potential.

Bottom Line

Most likely out of the playoffs. Team needs to play some D to be considered a playoff contender.

Playoffs – small chance
Championship – no

Courtesy of mikhail1973 @ www.pistonsforum.com

Season 2006/2007

Record 35-47

Rick Carlisle’s final season with Pacers looked exactly like the previous two. Injuries, arguing, trades, and constant fight with Atlanta for the title of the worst offensive team in the NBA.

Offseason

Draft

No picks

Key Trades

Acquired: Travis Diener, Careem Rush, Steven Graham.
Diener spent two seasons at Orlando where he was trying to back up Nelson, unsuccessfully. This year he’ll spend in Indiana trying to back up Tinsley, probably unsuccessfully as well. Careem Rush, who managed to play for several teams, will not be a strong addition to the squad. 15 minutes per game is his max. As far as Graham is concerned, Indy could’ve used his brother, who’s currently with Raptors, but not Steven.

Left: Baston, Green, Armstrong. Not much here.

Offseason grade: C

Season 2007/2008

Team’s problem begin at PG where Indiana has Jamaal Tinsley who’s occupied the position for the past few years. This is his spot even though he was quite inconsistent, especially in limited offense. Hopefully with O’Brien’s more open system he can actually become the player everyone saw a few years ago. The team also has no backup for him. Daniels could help with some ball-handling, but he’s not a PG. Danleavy, Daniels, and Rush are primary snipers and it’s not much at all.

SF is one of the brighter spots on the team. Danny Granger is a solid player, sort of jack of all trades. He can rebound, block shots, and score a timely 3-pointer. He reminds me of Josh Howard from Mavericks but the question remains whether Granger can reach that level of play.

O’Neal. His main issue from the past two-three seasons is that he’s forced to play closer to the basket. With his speed, one-on-one moves, and mid-range shot he should be playing the role that Tim Duncan plays for the past 10 years. Center playing a 4 and using height and weight advantage to the fullest extent. Popovich noticed it right away (it was difficult not to notice having Duncan playing alongside Robinson) and after that always had 1-2 average centers (Mohammed, Oberto, Nesterovic). While O’Neal had Foster and Pollard, who only played under the basket, O’Neal was quite dangerous. But since he started playing more with Harrington/Murphy and less with Foster, he looks worse, gets injured more often, and not nearly as effective. Who could potentially pair up with O’Neal upfront? Diogu, who was a highly touted talent a couple of years ago and got lost in NBA. Bigs usually take

longer to develop and start playing up to their potential after they turn 25. Is that the case with Diogu? Indiana still has Foster and David Harrison who while not getting much playing time for Carlisle, was still one of the fans favorites.

Note of importance

Jermaine O’Neal.
Always unhappy. He doesn’t like NBA dress code and thinks that Stern is discriminating against African-American players. Usually he sees his future with Indiana, but sometimes with Lakers. However, the next day he is saying that Indiana’s the place he wants to be. But who is he unhappy with? Maybe himself, who was left without the likes of Artest, Stojakovic, Harrington, and even Stephen Jackson?

Jermaine has MVP-caliber talent – he’s very well balanced forward/center, who is highly effective on offense as well as defense. NBA lacks this type of a player (Duncan, KG, and to a lesser extent Yao). He is strong under the basket and has no problem attacking from the mid-range.

Jeff Foster. He is mainly a rebounding specialist. Teams love to have a player of his type on the roster. He is tall and he can jump, but his main contribution is rebounding. He can outrebound anyone, even a player much taller than him. Even a player who is faster and can jump higher. It looks as if he just attracts the ball, kind of like a magnet. He reminds me quite a bit of Rodman.

Bottom Line

We’re so used to Indiana’s failures that the optimistic forecast (O’Neal and Tinsley play entire season without getting injured, Dunleavy and Murphy hit their shots and Granger becomes the most improved player) is very hard to believe. The offense should get better under the tutelage of O’Brien, but playoffs are probably still a long shot.

Playoffs – will contend
Championship – no

Courtesy of mikhail1973 @ www.pistonsforum.com

Season 2006/2007

Record 47-35

Everyone expected surprises from this young Toronto squad, as well as success from Colangelo, just not this quickly. In one year the team transformed from the perennial conference bottom-feeder into a very competitive group. The team has won its division. From the fan’s perspective, for the first time in five years the season didn’t end after 82 games. In this year Raptors took a very important step – it’s molded into a team. Sure the team has its weak spots, they are not up there yet with the best of the best in the NBA, but now Canada has a TEAM and looks like that team is not going to go away anytime soon. The core of the team is there to stay and is not going to fall apart.

Offseason

Draft

No picks.

Key Trades

Acquired: Carlos Delfino (Pistons) and Jason Kapono (Heat)

Not a bad addition that should keep Raptors as one of the deeper teams in the NBA.

Delfino’s addition makes more sense. He should help with his defense and rebounding. He likes to attack from the face line. When Bosh is playing in the high post, where he likes to operate, the Argentinean should have some space for his maneuvering.

Left: MoPete. When Toronto signed Parket, MoPete got lost in the mix and him leaving didn’t surprise anyone.

Offseason grade: B

Season 2007/2008

Toronto is really playing a different brand of basketball which creates many inconveniences for the opposing teams. Most of the NBA clubs are emphasizing physical play, watching the 3-second zone. They are not used to the game that Raptors players play. They are not used to center taking half of his shot from beyond the 3-point line. And in addition the second big can really run and very active creating matchup difficulties for the post 4’s in the game.

As any team that plays small ball (Suns, Warriors) Toronto has problems defending its basket. Even last season in the playoffs Nets had multiple opportunities to score off the offensive boards.

Raptors defense is really not bad at all. The team can play solid organized defense and does it from time to time. If you perform the calculations per 100 possessions (which is a more universal indicator than points score/allowed) Raptors are sitting 12th in the NBA. When Ford, Parker, and Delfino are on the court, team’s perimeter defense is covered.

Toronto also has a very long and solid bench. Everyone except Bosh as an equal coming off the bench to sub. There’s a question who is better – the starter or the player coming off the bench. You have Calderon coming in for Ford, Delfino or Kapono for Parker, Nesterovich for Bargnani, or vise-versa. Garbajosa and Graham. Dixon, Baston… When you look at it their bench is long enough to form an additional NBA team.

Note of importance

Chris Bosh. 17.5 ppg, 39% shooting, 9 rbs

These are the stats from the first round of the play-offs against the Nets, not the regular season stats. Chris is a big boy. He made an all-star team; his team has won the division. And his responsibilities are in tow. So, each duel that he lost to Richard Jefferson, each board that he lost to Nachbar made its way onto the pages of the newspapers, into the sports talk shows and TV programs. Bosh has all the tools. He has great athletic abilities and incredible mid-range jump shot.

He needs to develop some character. It is especially noticeable on defense. He is usually passive and lacks initiative (looking as though he is trying to preserve strength for the offensive end where the team really needs his help), but sometimes he looks like he just stops. He can just stand and watch at an opposing player just having his way under the Toronto basket. Will it change or will Bosh’s game remain the same?

Calderon. He is very quick and solid PG whose offensive game just grows. He is one of the better decision makers in the NBA and averages less than 1.5 turnovers per game.

Bottom Line

Team’s depth and game speed under the guidance of Ford and Calderon should be enough to repeat last year’s result.

Playoffs – yes
Championship - no

Courtesy of mikhail1973 @ www.pistonsforum.com

Season 2006/2007

Record 40-42

Team’s season left dual impression. On one hand the team finally made it to the playoffs. However, if you look at making the playoffs as the stepping stone to the future, Magic has disappointed. After showing its best and collecting wins quickly before the New Year, Brian Hill’s team became to show weaknesses. Howard showed his offensive one-sidedness. Turkoglu was playing as an independent contractor. And Jameer Nelson never became that dreaded point guard that Orlando fans had dreamed about. They got swept in the first round by Pistons.

Offseason

Draft

Nothing really to talk about here as Magic traded their first-round pick to Pistons. One of the past team draftees is still in Europe and doesn’t look like he’s every going to join the roster.

Key Trades

Signed: Rashard Lewis. Orlando signed this tall and thin (read injury-prone) sniper, paying incredible, even by NBA’s liberal standards money. Will the team get the return on the investment?
Left: Grant Hill and Darko Milicic

Offseason grade: C

Season 2007/2008

Last season, well at least in the first half, the team played pretty decent half-court offensive scheme (thanks to Grant Hill) and played organized defensively (third best opponents shooting percentage). Now without Grant and Darko team loses a lot on the defensive end. Shorter guards like Nelson, Arroyo, and Dooling are going to be struggling against Smush Parker/J-Will duo. And their division also has players like Gilbert Arenas and Joe Johnson.

What will be effective this year with the addition of Lewis? No matter how you look at it, Magic’s success will primarily depend on how Rashard will fit in with his teammates. Orlando does not have many stars and Lewis will have to produce in order for team to win. He is tall and quick with an excellent jump shot and should benefit from Howard’s play down low. However, Howard would have to see the game and react quicker to the double-teams. He struggled with turnovers all year long. And in order for Howard to be more effective, Lewis has to produce and attract more defensive efforts from the opponent leaving Howard to operate under the basket.

Now more on Howard. He is shooting 60% from the field. Lets look at how does he arrive at that high rate of success and if there is something that is a cause for concern. He attempts shots from the mid-range distance about 17% of the time (in comparison Duncan and Boozer get half of their points from there; Garnett, Jermaine O’Neal, and Elton Brand – 2/3) and he hits them at 28% clip. Every sixth his shot attempt is blocked because he can’t shoot jumpers and doesn’t get high off the ground. Everything else is dunks, offensive rebounds, and layups. That’s why his field goal percentage looks so high. His strongest and the only one-on-one move in his offensive arsenal at this time is a turn move where he dribbles with his left hand and uses right to ward off the defender. Like so:

Once the defender is behind Howard throws the ball through the hoop. This is an effective move, but not against everyone because it is all so redundant

You are going to hear a question posed by many basketball fans – “How about Shaq? Didn’t he reach success without a shot?” When he was 21, O’Neal averaged 30 points per game and he did it several times a season against the likes of David Robinson, Patrick Ewing, and Hakeem Olajuwon. Howard, being the same age, averages 17 points and he has to go against the likes of Brandon Haywood and Nenad Krstic.

I don’t think Howard will ever be like O’Neal. He doesn’t have that size and that type of strength. As one Russian sports forum member rightly noticed: players like O’Neal only come around once every 100 years, and players like Howard once every 10 years. Dwight needs some type of a shot to be successful.

Magic also lost one its starters to the season ending surgery. Battie is out and the team is going to struggle to replace him. This leaves Orlando even smaller all around.

Note of importance

Stan VanGundy the new coach. He left his last job under quite unpleasant circumstances – he was just told to get out of the way as not to prevent Pat Riley from doing the job. How much did it hurt his self-esteem? What can he get out of Orlando’s team this season? Who will be coach’s favorite and lead the team? I guess we’ll get all the answers in the next 10 months.

Bottom Line

6th-9th place in the conference look about right.
Playoffs – maybe
Championship - no

Courtesy of mikhail1973 @ www.pistonsforum.com

Season 2006/2007

Record 41-41

Songaila, Butler, Arenas, and Jamison – all missed parts of the season with Butler and Arenas missing the most important time. The team kind of rolled into the playoffs by virtue of accumulating wins early when most of the core players were healthy and then was soundly beaten in the first round by LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers.

Offseason

Draft

Nick Young and Dominic McGuire. Young looks more exciting and should be able to help the team right away. He is a classic 2. He has a decent shot, good ball handling skills. He has an ability to get open and moves well without the ball.

Offseason grade: C

Season 2007/2008

Washington is one of the three or four NBA teams that play distinct attacking game. The others are Mike D’Antony’s Phoenix Suns, Don Nelson’s “Golden State Warriors”, and to the less extent George Karl’s Denver Nuggets. However, Eddie Jordan’s Wizards are a different story. And not in a good way. There’s probably not another team in the league that has more problem with big man that can play. Phoenix has Amare, Denver has Camby and Nene, even Golden State has Biedrins and Harrington (arguably).

But Washington has a huge hole at 4 and 5. The team has two players that are filling the center who are hopeless: Ethan Thomas (looks like out for the year after an open heart surgery), who is less hopeless and Brendan Haywood, who is totally hopeless. They look nothing like one another, but their effectiveness is about the same as if they were basketball twins. One can also add their constant fighting to the list. Now looks like Haywood has the position all to himself. The team is going to also use 6’11” Andray Blatche (who just recently had some legal issues) and 7’ Oleksiy Pecherov (to the less extent) to fill the void created by Thomas’s condition.

Besides those, Wizards have Jamison who doesn’t like to play close to the basket; he doesn’t like to fight for rebounds and prefers to play a long distance game. Last two seasons he and Butler gathered the most rebounds for the team, just because someone has to do it.

If Wizards bigs could just play solid D, regardless of their offensive output, the team could be challenging for the conference crown. However, today even such an uninspiring tandem of Ilgauskas and Gooden averages these numbers against the Wizards: 33.5pts, 60%fg, 22rbs. Unless this improves, Washington is going to struggle trying to win in the playoffs.

Trio of Arenas-Butler-Jamison is what makes this team go. Especially Arenas. He scored winning baskets, he had incredible short periods during the games, and he was team’s leader. However. It is easier promise 50-point games than actually score those points. At some point during the last season, Arena’s irrational part was overshadowing his great game. It wasn’t quite as noticeable during the games (games with 1-8 from 3-pt line are norm for him), but the public opinion of “Agent 0” went downhill. Why is this guy making so much noise? Did he lead his team beyond the second round of the play-offs? Those are the questions that have been asked by the basketball people all around.

We all know that he is extremely talented to the extent of winning the 3-pt shooting contest with one hand. But now the game needs “Agent 0 – the winner”.

Note of importance

Oleksiy Pecherov. I wasn’t able to find much info on the guy, just saw a couple of his games during the summer league. From what I read he was never hailed as the next Russian Shaq or future Magic. But he was characterized as a solid player. Most of what I read about the guy was positive. He is a workmanlike player and he is a gym rat. From what I heard he regularly spends 7-8 hrs a day in the team’s gym working on his game. He has a solid shot, doesn’t mind doing dirty work – chasing the ball, fighting for rebounds and loose balls, decent on the fast break. His main problem is his inconsistency, but that should get better with playing time.

Bottom Line

Playoffs – most likely
Championship - no

Courtesy of mikhail1973 @ www.pistonsforum.com

Season 2006/2007

Record 24-58

Boston’s season went mostly as expected. They lost to everyone and anyone and gave Pierce a chance to recover after his injuries (maybe longer than actually needed), while waiting for Greg Oden, the second coming of Bill Russell. However, the fate demolished Celtics’ castle in the sky and they didn’t get the ball #1. And they didn’t get the ball #2. And so forth and so on. Although, after Oden’s injury the jury’s out whether Boston would’ve benefited from that #1 ball.

Offseason

Draft

The team drafted Jeff Green at #5 and promptly traded him in a Ray Allen deal, and Gabe Pruitt in the second round.

Key Trades

Acquired: Boston made a lot of noise in the offseason trading half of their team for Kevin Garnett and making a splash by acquiring seven time all-star Ray Allen. Celtics also signed free agents James Posey, Scot Pollard, Eddie House, and Dahntay Jones to plug the holes created by the trades.

Left: Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, Al Jefferson, Jerald Green, and Ryan Gomez (all in KG trade to Minni), Wally Scherbiak and Delonte West (to Seattle for Allen). Allan Ray was cut.

Offseason grade: Inc

Season 2007/2008

Mr. Inside, Mr. Outside, and Mr. Pierce – how will they look together? Pierce and Allen’s game should complement each other. KG should catch second wind finally playing with partners of this level, something he never had before. There’s material for a very competitive team. But what worries Boston and its fans? The main difficulties the team is going to face are tactical adaptability, their bench, and absence of an established point guard.

Tactical adaptability you may ask – what is it and why? Well, if you look at the NBA championship teams of the last couple of decades be it Jordan’s Bulls or O’Neil’s Lakers. Even today’s San Antonio or Houston Rockets of the 90’s. Any of those teams was able to win in the play-offs playing different style during the different parts of the games. They could adapt to what their opponent did and could find key weaknesses and exploit them. It could have been surprisingly stingy defense by Lakers during the deciding minutes, or shower of 3-pointers by Rockets, even an unexpected fast-break by slow-by-nature Pistons team, or lessons of early offense that Spurs gave to Suns during the two games at Phoenix during the 2005 play-offs.

The contending team should be able to choose its style of play depending on the pieces in place, but by definition it can’t be one-dimensional. Such a team is destined for a failure. Today’s Boston team has three superstars, but until they learn to play together and to vary their style of play they won’t pose a threat to the NBA elite. Usually growth like that takes between 1 and 2 years while players learn each other’s games. That is why Pistons and Spurs managed to stay competitive for long periods of time due to limited changes in the player personnel and players being used to one another.

Boston has Rondo for the point guard. He is solid defensively, but has no reliable jump shot. I am not sure that Celtics need a play-maker. But they could sorely use someone with the reliable shot. And Rondo could be anything, but not a player who can consistently hit his shots.

There is another seed of doubt that is on the mind of many Celtics’ basketball fans – Doc Rivers. Can he handle this collection of stars? Does he fit the current team? Some teams need a strict specialist, others almost need a player/coach (please no Lindsey Hunter references here) who is players’ friend. Rivers could actually be a good fit with players. Current Boston stars don’t need a disciplinarian. He also has rapport with younger players. The main thing is to stay within himself and not pay attention to the media, who already started the championship talk.

Pierce will most likely remain the leader of the team. He’s the most fearless of the Big Three. And he will have the ball in his hands with the game on the line making the important decisions. He is also going to be happy finally surrounded by all-star type talent.

The bench is one of the bigger issues for the Celtics in this upcoming season. Because of the salary cap restrictions and limited availability and time frame, Danny Ainge was able to sign outcasts that couldn’t find their place with other teams. It doesn’t look like they have anyone even remotely resembling a sixth man of the year candidate. One can’t expect much from the likes of Pollard and Scalabrine. The only couple of players that can actually contribute are Posey and Tony Allen. House is a streaky shooter, so the team can’t count on him game in and game out. Batista only shown his potential, but nothing indicating that he is going to come in and contribute.

Note of importance

Tony Allen. The only one retained after the trades besides Pierce, Rivers, and Ainge. He has good hops and good moves, he’s also very active. He is an outstanding in your face defensively. He missed most of the 2006/07 season after getting himself injured trying to dunk the ball well after the referee’s blown the whistle.

Bottom Line

40+ wins in the improving Eastern conference. Could get as high as 50
Playoffs – yes
Championship - no