Human Victory Cigar

From Luke Slippywalker @ Pistonforum.com

A recurring theme among all the game threads here at Pistonsforum.com is Age. Playing our athletic youngsters; overplaying our aging core; relying on older veterans; matching up with a young opponent; it all boils down to the same thing. So with round one tucked away, I thought it’d be interesting to look at our age/minute distribution versus the regular season.

The previous article outlined how we did as well as could be expected of a top seeded playoff team in distributing minutes to our younger guys. Below is the regular season distribution of total minutes.

No surprises. Each starter got roughly 12% of the total minutes. Five other players got smaller slices of the pie and the rest came and went. The average age per minute was calculated by multiplying the age by the percentage of minutes and came out to 29.1.

In the playoffs, we see a higher distribution of minutes among the top players and a shortening of the rotation as illustrated below.

Despite the shift, the team’s average age increased to 29.3. Taking in to account the variances (this wasn’t rocket science…or even quasi-science), it’s really not much at all. One would think that increasing the minutes played by the over 30 gang and the perceived switch to Hunter and Ratliff would tip the scales a little more. However, it was Stuckey and Maxiell spearheading the youth infusion. Both got roughly 50% more of the share of minutes than they did in the regular season.

There were a lot of factors contributing to the results: the extended garbage time in some games, McDyess’ injury opening a door for Maxiell, the demotion of Hayes, the fact that everyone is older now than at the start of the season. However, taken as a whole, it still all boils down to age, and it seems that the Pistons remain relatively consistent in that regard.

From Luke Slippywalker @ Pistonforum.com

After last years disappointing loss, the Pistons organization declared three goals for this season: reduce the starters minutes, develop its youth, and find a scoring option off the bench. As the starters stayed in games many fans thought they shouldn’t have, it was easy to get the feeling that this was business as usual all over again. Fellow forumite BillLaimbeer compared the minutes per game versus other championship teams so this time we’re going to step back and take a look at the total minutes played and see how we did.

Aside from McDyess who went from sub to starter, we’ve got a general reduction in minutes. Rasheed’s minutes are roughly the same but we see roughly 10% reduction in overall minutes for Rip and Tayshaun. Chauncey had the same total minutes but sat out eight more games in ’06-’07. Is this enough? If you even believed the tired legs reasoning for last year’s collapse, Bill’s piece highlighted that we’re in line with other championship teams. So for goal #1, reducing the starters minutes, we’re going to check that off.

Rookies Afflalo and Stuckey got significantly more minutes than any other doughnut fetching first year player of the Going to work era…except for Mehmet Okur. Aside from Okur, no rookie got more that 450 minutes - that includes Prince and Delfino. Milicic’s career minutes for the Pistons doesn’t even come close to Afflalo’s first year total. If you add in Amir’s 764 minutes which is comparable to a Delfino and Maxiell’s developing seasons, it’s a wonder they were able to find the time for all three. While you can argue that more time would have been more beneficial, the team is trying to balance winning and development. This year, over all previous years, the staff has managed to do just that. Goal #2. Check.

Dumars spent the offseason looking for a scoring punch to come off the bench to keep the team from bogging down while the starters sat. The answer was the affordable Jarvis Hayes. Hayes is your typical Dumars’ diamond in the rough player. He’s got the college/ lottery pedigree. He’s gone through some unfortunate events and hasn’t lived up to his potential and he’s cheap. Sure he can’t shut down Yi Jianlian any better than a sofa recliner but after watching uber athlete Mo Evans spot up for three and Delfino spot up for nothing, you had to figure our expectations were roughly the same. Ok so he’s better than Carlos but so is like 90% of the NBA and probably 75% of the NBDL. I like Hayes but, by the numbers, we’re going to have to say: Goal #3….brrrrt.

Well there it is. With Maxiell emerging as a bona fide bench presence, we’re in as good a position as we’ve been in years. Will it be enough to git er done? That’s what the playoffs are all about.

From BillLaimbeer @ Pistonforum.com

Much has been made this year about the reduction in minutes for the Piston starters. That got me to thinking… “I wonder how many minutes the starters on recent NBA Championship teams have played?” So, here you have it, the average minutes played for the core guys of the last 10 Champs:

Well, the minutes played over the last 6 seasons have been around 29-31 minutes. The exception to that was the 2004 Pistons, where starters averaged 34.4 minutes. The 2001 Lakers played the heaviest minutes over the last decade, averaging 35.0 mpg.

Okay, the Pistons played 34.4 mpg and still won the ‘Ship in 2004, but the last few seasons the minutes increased and it was these “dead legs”, of course, that cost them more titles. Well, not so fast. Let’s see how the minutes fared since the 2004 run:

In Larry Brown’s second season, the mpg spiked to an all-time high of 36.3. We all remember, of course, that team narrowly missed a repeat title. In the first two seasons of the Flip Saunders era, the mpg actually dropped an average of one minute per game, resulting in back-to-back ECF losses. Last season the mpg were back down to the exact same level as the ’04 Championship season.

In 2008, the starter minutes dropped significantly. The 31.7 mpg is eerily close to the 31.9 mpg average of the last 10 NBA Championship teams. What does it all mean? Who knows? Ask me again in 2 months.

This is from Pistonsforum.com, and is a post by webz, a long time Australian member who has been traveling the world, and took in the 2008 Detroit Pistons season ender in Cleveland. His first NBA road game, following his first NBA home game the night before against Minnesota.

The following is my account of one of the best Pistons experiences I’ve ever had. It will contain little to no analysis about the game, so if you aren’t interested in hearing the excited ramblings of a Pistons fan you might want to skip this. I’ll leave the game analysis to the Lee, Dre, D4E and company.

My first Pistons game last night against Minny at home was pretty special. But I think this tops that.

Some may say that this was just a meaningless game. Some who watched it from the comfort of their couches may say LeBron and Z weren’t playing so there was no feeling. These people are probably right. But to me it wasn’t a meaningless game…

• Maybe it’s because I’m still pumped about watching the game live…
• Maybe it’s because I watched the entire 2nd half 6 rows back right behind the Pistons bench…
• Maybe it’s because I went into a hostile environment and went home a smug winner…
• Maybe it’s all of those things. But to me, this game was every fans dream. (or maybe just mine ).

So I ended up getting into the game. I still hadn’t decided about going and it was 5:30pm, but ended up getting the bus into town anyway. Tashawn kinda convinced me that if I couldn’t get a cheap Cavs ticket I could always check out some baseball (Tigers-Indians).

I watched the first quarter from a Sports Bar & Grill on 4th St about 2 blocks from the arena while eating my dinner and having a beer. No LeBron. I decided I could try and use this to help get a discount from the scalpers I was to meet in a few minutes time.

Talked to a few scalpers who waved me off when I said I only wanted to spend $20-30. They were peddling courtside seats. Walked a bit further and found a couple more guys. They were trying to sell me a nosebleed ticket on the end of the court for $40. I was feeling pretty cocky cos I really wasn’t bothered if I saw the game or not. (The stein of beer I had probably helped too )

I bargained one down to $25 using my ‘But LeBron isn’t playing, I ain’t paying THAT much!’ The guy was starting to get sick of me and he said, ‘Look, you’re just one person. All you need is to get in the door and you could just sneak down to a better seat.’

I thought, ‘You know, you’re right. Let’s try that.’

Got inside and went to my allocated seat. It was rubbish. But I decided to stay there for the 2nd Quarter and scope out some kick-ass seats down lower. I kept my eye on a few that were never filled during the whole Q. At half time I went down. If I got stopped I was going to use my line of ‘I just want to take some photos’. It was half time after all, it should seem innocent enough. Well, it was not necessary. Security was non-existent and I just walked on down and sat myself 6 rows from the court, directly behind the Pistons bench. Sweeeeeeet. It was a few minutes into the start of the 2nd half before I relaxed and knew I was safe. From then on it was just fantastic.

I took some photos which I will post a bit later on. I could see all the guys on the bench. It was interesting to watch them interacting with each other. I noticed the whole time I was there I did not see anyone say one word to Cheik Samb (or vice versa). He truly looked like a loner at the end of the bench and I felt a bit sorry for him that he was invisible to the rest of his teammates. Nice suit though.

Meanwhile Sheed was being Sheed, throwing things at Maxiell while Flip was addressing them during a timeout, then hiding behind Terry Porter. Playing with the fans, making funny gestures to the camera when he appeared on the big screen.

Side note: Hayes went to the bench in the 2nd half and Arnie Kander was working on his left shoulder. He didn’t look too bothered about it and he checked back into the game later on, but remember - you heard your Pistons injury report here first! Tay also appeared to be limping slightly when he walked off at the end of the game.

So, the game itself was a gem from the Zoo crew. All game we were just hanging around 5-7 points down, the crowd seemed pretty confident of a victory. Whenever we made a sweet play, all these people were saying, ‘Who the hell was that?’ (Stuckey), or ‘Who keeps hitting that baseline jumper?’ (Afflalo)

But to see that mental change in the Zoo crew during the 4th quarter was pretty special. You could just see the intensity pick up. Herrmann was a bundle of lightning caught in a Gatorade cup. Stuckey was a hot knife scything through Cavalier butter. Dixon was nailing cold-blooded dagger after dagger…

Then when Walter nailed that 3pt bomb from 40 feet out I just couldn’t hold back a loud ‘Whaaaaa-ha-hoooooooooo!!!! Oh MYYY!!’ Up until that point I had disguised pretty well to anyone around me that I was a Piston fan. I thought they might alert security or something about my stolen seat. Haha.

After that, they knew. And I didn’t care. I was too busy enjoying it.

The crowd were stunned. All of a sudden they were down. A lot… and then it was all over. I hung around after the game for a bit to let the crowd leave and watched Afflalo give his interview to George and Special K. Then walked through downtown Cleveland with a big smile on my face and went home.

It was a pretty special night. If you bothered to read this far, thanks. I’m happy to share my Pistons experiences with some of you guys. I’ll be back at the Palace on Sunday for Game 1. Only a Pistons win there might be able to top this.

Introduction
Enough of the 2007 / 2008 NBA season has elapsed for me to evaluate the best of the best by position and to put up a candidate for league MVP. The approach, like all things statsprocket-ish, is empirical (at least up to the end), statistical, and semi-complicated. Briefly, what I’ve done to rank players is described below. As always, thanks must go to www.dougstats.com for providing NBA stats in formats easy to drop into Excel.

The ranking methodology…

• Select all players who have appeared in more than 50 games
• Rank by total Sprocket Points generated and select the top 50
• Create three Sprocket Points based ranking for each player…
• Rank by count of Sprocket Points for a measure of total statistical production
• Rank by percent of team Sprocket Points for a measure of how important the player is to his team
• Rank by relative production, the ratio of % of Team Sprocket Points to % of Team Minutes to distinguish players who produce more just because they play a lot of minutes
• Weight and average the three rankings for a final measure
• Weights are 0.4 for the first ranking, 0.2 for the second, and 0.4 for the third

(The tables in each section below show all of the measures used and the final ranking and include all player’s in the league’s top fifty.)

Point Guards

It’s either a bad year for point guards or Chris Paul is simply too good for everyone else. No other guard is even close. CP3 ranks 4^th among the top 50 players in Sprocket Points produced, 4^th in percent of team Sprocket Points, and has a productivity index (% Sprocket Points / % Team Minutes) of 161 which is 6^th best in the league. Kidd, Nash, Davis, and Williams round out the top five, but are a clear step down. Add in the Hornets overall team record and there really is no doubt about who’s having the best year.

Calderon is having a surprisingly good year and if he were playing the same number of minutes as the other top guards (assuming no drop off in production), would probably have cracked the top five. The Piston’s Billups is not having a bad year at all, but just isn’t the kind of player who generates as much on the court, and is playing the second fewest minutes (!!!) of any point guard among the league’s top 50.

Shooting Guards
Although not quite as clear as the point guard ranking, Kobe Bryant does stand alone at the top of the shooting guard ranking. In general shooting guards do not contribute a huge share of overall team Sprocket Points (tend not to generate assists, blocks, or rebounds, but tend to turn the ball over and to shoot a lower percentage than other positions). If you also consider team record, no one else comes close.

Roy is having an extraordinary year for a second year shooting guard, but many of the other top rated players are on bad teams – Wade, Carter, Iguodala, and Johnson. More top shooting guards are on bad teams than any other position.

Small Forwards
Nothing much to say here. Lebron James dominates his position more than any other player at any other position. Like him or hate him, he plays 14% of the minutes for the Cavs and produces 23.2% of their statistical productivity, for a gaudy Productivity Index of 166 – 66% more productivity per minute than the average NBA player. LBJ plays forty-one minutes a game (tied with Joe Johnson for the most minutes played of the top 50) and produces 47.7 Sprocket Points per game, ranked number one among the top 50.

He is the only small forward in the top thirty-nine players of the top fifty. Perhaps with the recent trade his share of team production will fall a bit, but it’s so far down to the second best small forward that James will still dominate the ranking.

Power Forwards
Often players are omitted from MVP type rankings because they play on bad teams. So, how about Marion who gets traded to a bad team mid-season? And is he a four or a three anyway? In any event, Garnett is more productive overall and has a productivity index a few points higher. Marion has a higher share of overall team productivity, but he doesn’t play with Allen and Pierce either (though at least part of the season with Nash and Stoudemire). If you consider the Celtics record and all the other things that Garnett brings to the game that never end up in the stat sheets, then it really isn’t close. KG is still #1. Boozer gets an honorable mention with a very strong season, but not a top tier one.

Centers
And last, the closest ranking of them all. I think you can make a case for any of the top three. Howard does as much with the minutes he plays as any other player with the top Productivity Index rank (though only fractions of a point higher than Duncan and James). He is the most important player to his team among the top fifty, accounting for nearly 27% of the Magic’s statistical production. (And it’s not as if no one else on the team is any good – Turkoglu is the 4^th best small forward this year.)

Duncan isn’t nicknamed the Big Fundamental for nothing. He’s so solid you could build a house on him, and that’s pretty much what San Antonio has done. In fewer minutes than any of the top three he’s the fifth best in the top 50 in total Sprocket Points, and in a virtual tie for first with Howard on the Productivity Index. His rank of 9^th on % of Team Sprocket Points probably says more about the balance and productivity of the Spurs than anything else.

Many wouldn’t put Camby in this ranking, but I think his performance this year forces the issue. He has played in 62 of the Nuggets’ 64 games and averaged over 35 minutes per game. He is second in the league in total Sprocket Points, only trailing James by 2.8 per game. He is 5^th best in share of team Sprocket Points despite playing with Anthony and Iverson who have the ball in their hands most of the time. He does slightly less with his time on the court (Productivity Index of 160) than the other top centers, but is still 8^th best among the top 50.

All considered though, I think the decision is between Howard and Duncan. Camby has had an extraordinary season so far, but no one would take him over either of the other two to build a team around, and he does rank third among the three. Add to that Denver will not (at this point), in a travesty of the rules, make the playoffs, and Camby must drop out.

For the Productivity Index Howard and Duncan are within 0.1 index points, so that’s a tie in my book. Duncan is a good step down in terms of % of Team Sprocket Points, but then Howard doesn’t play with Parker and Genobli. If Duncan were to play Howard’s minutes without a drop-off in production, he would rank higher in total Sprocket Points. If he were to play James’ minutes with only a small drop-off, he would lead the league in Sprocket Points. The Spurs’ record is very similar to the Magic (44-22 and 44-24 at this point), but they play in a much tougher conference. Put it all together and think Duncan gets the nod.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the rankings is Al Jefferson who is having probably the strongest year of any player you never hear about – and stronger than most you do hear about. Maybe the coming Spring thaw will motivate a national sports writer or two to head north to the Twin Cities. One more year to go on his contract and after that Al becomes the biggest free agent deal going (big sign and trade deal this Summer?).

League MVP
Now it gets tough. James, Duncan, Paul, Garnett, and Bryant, and only one trophy.

• Kobe has to be the sentimental choice. He has never won the MVP and is perhaps the scariest guy in the league with the ball and the game on the line. The Lakers have the most wins of any team of the final five other than Boston, but Odom has been solid, Bynum was playing at a level that would have put in contention for best center, and Gasol has been reborn since heading west. But, he is the only one in the top five with not in the top ten in at least two of the key rankings. Best heart.
• Garnett is playing perhaps his best basketball and the force of his personality has melded the Celtics into a real team. Even with Pierce and Allen, perhaps in spite of Pierce and Allen, I’d argue Garnett has done the best job of team leadership of any in the top five. It could well depend on whether you think the MVP has to dominate his team’s production, which Garnett has not. Best leader.
• Paul is very consistent across the rankings, 4^th, 4^th, and 6^th. And the Hornets are only one game out of first place in the tough West without another star name on the roster, though the same could be said for the Lakers and the Cavs. Most consistent.
• Duncan is hard to ignore. His team is winning and he does as much with his time on the floor as any other player. No weaknesses.
• And finally, there is James – ranked the best of the bunch, but taking 41 minutes a game to do it in. And playing on the worst team in the group, with arguably the weakest supporting cast (at least until the trade). Most dominating one on one.

Knocking out Bryant, despite the fact that I’d like to see him win an MVP, isn’t too hard. His Productivity Index isn’t up to the standards of the other four. And at 38.5 MPG, at least some of his overall production comes from playing so much with relatively weak players. Garnett has subsumed his game a bit to fit in with his new team and ranks 23^rd in percent of team productivity. He isn’t dominating a good team the way Duncan, and Paul do. Sorry, KG. James has no problem dominating his team, he is the highest ranked of the five in % of Team Sprocket Points, but his team isn’t that hard to dominate, and it takes him 41 minutes per game to do it in. LBJ is out.

Duncan and Paul is a tough call. Their weighted average ranks are only 0.1 apart. If they played the same number of minutes their total Sprocket Points per game would be nearly identical. Paul has a higher share of team production – question is whether the Hornets with Paul, Stojakovic, and Chandler can be called a weaker team than the Spurs. They do have a better record playing against the same competition. I guess a tie won’t work. My MVP is Duncan.

Courtesy of mikhail1973 @ www.pistonsforum.com

Season 2006/2007

Record 50-32

The best season in team’s history. No, not really, not that. Maybe the best play-off season in the team’s history. No, still not it. Not the entire play-offs, more likely one series. Maybe even a single game, not a series. And not by a team, but by one player.

Offseason

Draft

No picks

Key Trades

Acquired: Devin Brown and Cedric Simmons from Hornets.

Left: Scott Pollard and David Wesley.

Unsigned: Sasha Pavlovic and Anderson Varejao

Offseason grade: N/A

Season 2007/2008

The team hasn’t changed a bit. The same coach, same leader, and the same players (other than a couple of holdouts). Everyone who is predicting a fall for the team is in for a disappointment. The team is going to remain to be inconvenient to play against as it was during the past season and the season prior to that. Cleveland is not necessarily only LeBron. It is also a sticky defense and the ability to make the opposition play Cavs tempo, Cavs game. It is a very good home team that could explode in front of the home fans. This is when the team runs.

What are team’s issues?

1. A point guard and a shooting guard. The team fills the hole with oft-injured Hughes, veteran Snow and young Gibson. Cleveland media reports that Hughes worked on his shot this off-season. But it won’t solve Cleveland’s issues.

2. Only one question to Pavlovic – why out of 30 NBA teams he had to join the one where his natural position is being occupied by LBJ?

3. The front court has its limitations. Against weaker opposition they look good, but they are nowhere near as effective against stronger teams.

4. The team has no reliable scorer other than LeBron. If he is doubled he has nobody to pass to who can knock the shot down.

LeBron James is improving his game. He is working out all the kinks, all the technical errors, and improves his form. There are still some holes in his game which haven’t completely disappeared by they are getting lesser and smaller all the time. He always had athletic ability and court vision, now he is rounding into a more complete player. He moves a lot quicker and smoother, he rarely gets into the crowded area under the rim, he makes better decisions at the critical moments, and he can attack from any distance. Actually, he always attacked from all distances, now he is just a lot more efficient at it. And that’s exactly how he played for the US team this summer. The Spurs beat down was easily predictable, but a sweep-pill wasn’t any sweeter because of that. James wants to get back to the finals to take another crack at it.

Note of importance

Daniel “Boobie” Gibson. The guy blossomed during the playoffs. He is quick and fearless. Born and raised in Texas. During the sixths game against Pistons, when Pistons fans thought that it was all a bad dream and they were going to wake up any minute, this guy came off the bench and each of his 3-point makes (5 for 5) made Flip Saunders cringe as if he was electrocuted.

Bottom Line

Cleveland didn’t change, but conference did. So will the environment and playoff opponents. I don’t foresee another trip to the finals.

Playoffs – yes
Championship – no

Courtesy of mikhail1973 @ www.pistonsforum.com

Season 2006/2007

Record 28-54

The fortune turned its back on the Bucks. Redd and Villanueva missed a half of the season each. Bucks player of the year in 2005/2006 Bobbie Simmons didn’t even make it onto the court. Milwaukee finished the year with 28th place and 6th draft spot.

Offseason

Draft

Yi Jianlian and Ramon Sessions.

A ghost from China: everyone heard of him, some say they even saw him. Nobody knows how old he really is. It is anyone’s guess how many minutes will he get.

Key Trades

Acquired: Desmond Mason returned. Also Jake Voskuhl and Royal Ivey. Milwaukee is short on guards, so Mason will most likely see some playing time at the shooting guard spot subbing for resting Redd.
Left: Earl Boykins, Lin Greer, Ruben Patterson, Brian Skinner.

Offseason grade: C

Season 2007/2008

Milwaukee’s defense is one of the worst in the league. Bogut is not strong enough to bang with most of his opponents. Mo Williams not heavy enough against any opponent. And when basketball god created Michael Redd, all of the talent went into the offensive game. And Ruben Patterson, the only good defender Bucks had, left the team this summer. Don’t expect any defensive improvements from this team.

Offense is another story. There are two reasons for the effective offense that Bucks display:

1. Tall quick players that can pass the ball. First of all it relates to Bogut, who is one of the best at that in the entire NBA.
2. Set of shooters led by Redd (26ppg).

This combination allows Milwaukee to remain in top 10 in NBA in scoring and field goal percentage. Addition of Mason and return of Simpson along with the full season from Redd and Villanueva should help to maintain the offensive production.

When the team decided to build around Michael Redd first thought or maybe even a reflective reaction was – mistake! Who do they rely on? What goals can achieve team that is lead by a shooter? If you think about it his game is best suited for the role player. Two years past since that time. Milwaukee had one solid season. Redd adopted, consistently plays better, became one of the best scorers in the NBA and doesn’t look like just a shooting specialist anymore. The contract that Redd signed at that time looks quite reasonable.

Bucks have a decent bench – Ivey will sub for Williams, Bell will fill in for 1, 2, and 3, Simmons will be a combo-forward, Gadzuric – fast and athletic center. They will have emphasis on the quick frontline that lacks size and strength.

Note of importance

Charlie Villanueva. Regardless of competition from Simmons and many injuries (he had several, one just recently) he should start showing his potential.

Bottom Line

Most likely out of the playoffs. Team needs to play some D to be considered a playoff contender.

Playoffs – small chance
Championship – no

Courtesy of mikhail1973 @ www.pistonsforum.com

Season 2006/2007

Record 35-47

Rick Carlisle’s final season with Pacers looked exactly like the previous two. Injuries, arguing, trades, and constant fight with Atlanta for the title of the worst offensive team in the NBA.

Offseason

Draft

No picks

Key Trades

Acquired: Travis Diener, Careem Rush, Steven Graham.
Diener spent two seasons at Orlando where he was trying to back up Nelson, unsuccessfully. This year he’ll spend in Indiana trying to back up Tinsley, probably unsuccessfully as well. Careem Rush, who managed to play for several teams, will not be a strong addition to the squad. 15 minutes per game is his max. As far as Graham is concerned, Indy could’ve used his brother, who’s currently with Raptors, but not Steven.

Left: Baston, Green, Armstrong. Not much here.

Offseason grade: C

Season 2007/2008

Team’s problem begin at PG where Indiana has Jamaal Tinsley who’s occupied the position for the past few years. This is his spot even though he was quite inconsistent, especially in limited offense. Hopefully with O’Brien’s more open system he can actually become the player everyone saw a few years ago. The team also has no backup for him. Daniels could help with some ball-handling, but he’s not a PG. Danleavy, Daniels, and Rush are primary snipers and it’s not much at all.

SF is one of the brighter spots on the team. Danny Granger is a solid player, sort of jack of all trades. He can rebound, block shots, and score a timely 3-pointer. He reminds me of Josh Howard from Mavericks but the question remains whether Granger can reach that level of play.

O’Neal. His main issue from the past two-three seasons is that he’s forced to play closer to the basket. With his speed, one-on-one moves, and mid-range shot he should be playing the role that Tim Duncan plays for the past 10 years. Center playing a 4 and using height and weight advantage to the fullest extent. Popovich noticed it right away (it was difficult not to notice having Duncan playing alongside Robinson) and after that always had 1-2 average centers (Mohammed, Oberto, Nesterovic). While O’Neal had Foster and Pollard, who only played under the basket, O’Neal was quite dangerous. But since he started playing more with Harrington/Murphy and less with Foster, he looks worse, gets injured more often, and not nearly as effective. Who could potentially pair up with O’Neal upfront? Diogu, who was a highly touted talent a couple of years ago and got lost in NBA. Bigs usually take

longer to develop and start playing up to their potential after they turn 25. Is that the case with Diogu? Indiana still has Foster and David Harrison who while not getting much playing time for Carlisle, was still one of the fans favorites.

Note of importance

Jermaine O’Neal.
Always unhappy. He doesn’t like NBA dress code and thinks that Stern is discriminating against African-American players. Usually he sees his future with Indiana, but sometimes with Lakers. However, the next day he is saying that Indiana’s the place he wants to be. But who is he unhappy with? Maybe himself, who was left without the likes of Artest, Stojakovic, Harrington, and even Stephen Jackson?

Jermaine has MVP-caliber talent – he’s very well balanced forward/center, who is highly effective on offense as well as defense. NBA lacks this type of a player (Duncan, KG, and to a lesser extent Yao). He is strong under the basket and has no problem attacking from the mid-range.

Jeff Foster. He is mainly a rebounding specialist. Teams love to have a player of his type on the roster. He is tall and he can jump, but his main contribution is rebounding. He can outrebound anyone, even a player much taller than him. Even a player who is faster and can jump higher. It looks as if he just attracts the ball, kind of like a magnet. He reminds me quite a bit of Rodman.

Bottom Line

We’re so used to Indiana’s failures that the optimistic forecast (O’Neal and Tinsley play entire season without getting injured, Dunleavy and Murphy hit their shots and Granger becomes the most improved player) is very hard to believe. The offense should get better under the tutelage of O’Brien, but playoffs are probably still a long shot.

Playoffs – will contend
Championship – no

Courtesy of mikhail1973 @ www.pistonsforum.com

Season 2006/2007

Record 47-35

Everyone expected surprises from this young Toronto squad, as well as success from Colangelo, just not this quickly. In one year the team transformed from the perennial conference bottom-feeder into a very competitive group. The team has won its division. From the fan’s perspective, for the first time in five years the season didn’t end after 82 games. In this year Raptors took a very important step – it’s molded into a team. Sure the team has its weak spots, they are not up there yet with the best of the best in the NBA, but now Canada has a TEAM and looks like that team is not going to go away anytime soon. The core of the team is there to stay and is not going to fall apart.

Offseason

Draft

No picks.

Key Trades

Acquired: Carlos Delfino (Pistons) and Jason Kapono (Heat)

Not a bad addition that should keep Raptors as one of the deeper teams in the NBA.

Delfino’s addition makes more sense. He should help with his defense and rebounding. He likes to attack from the face line. When Bosh is playing in the high post, where he likes to operate, the Argentinean should have some space for his maneuvering.

Left: MoPete. When Toronto signed Parket, MoPete got lost in the mix and him leaving didn’t surprise anyone.

Offseason grade: B

Season 2007/2008

Toronto is really playing a different brand of basketball which creates many inconveniences for the opposing teams. Most of the NBA clubs are emphasizing physical play, watching the 3-second zone. They are not used to the game that Raptors players play. They are not used to center taking half of his shot from beyond the 3-point line. And in addition the second big can really run and very active creating matchup difficulties for the post 4’s in the game.

As any team that plays small ball (Suns, Warriors) Toronto has problems defending its basket. Even last season in the playoffs Nets had multiple opportunities to score off the offensive boards.

Raptors defense is really not bad at all. The team can play solid organized defense and does it from time to time. If you perform the calculations per 100 possessions (which is a more universal indicator than points score/allowed) Raptors are sitting 12th in the NBA. When Ford, Parker, and Delfino are on the court, team’s perimeter defense is covered.

Toronto also has a very long and solid bench. Everyone except Bosh as an equal coming off the bench to sub. There’s a question who is better – the starter or the player coming off the bench. You have Calderon coming in for Ford, Delfino or Kapono for Parker, Nesterovich for Bargnani, or vise-versa. Garbajosa and Graham. Dixon, Baston… When you look at it their bench is long enough to form an additional NBA team.

Note of importance

Chris Bosh. 17.5 ppg, 39% shooting, 9 rbs

These are the stats from the first round of the play-offs against the Nets, not the regular season stats. Chris is a big boy. He made an all-star team; his team has won the division. And his responsibilities are in tow. So, each duel that he lost to Richard Jefferson, each board that he lost to Nachbar made its way onto the pages of the newspapers, into the sports talk shows and TV programs. Bosh has all the tools. He has great athletic abilities and incredible mid-range jump shot.

He needs to develop some character. It is especially noticeable on defense. He is usually passive and lacks initiative (looking as though he is trying to preserve strength for the offensive end where the team really needs his help), but sometimes he looks like he just stops. He can just stand and watch at an opposing player just having his way under the Toronto basket. Will it change or will Bosh’s game remain the same?

Calderon. He is very quick and solid PG whose offensive game just grows. He is one of the better decision makers in the NBA and averages less than 1.5 turnovers per game.

Bottom Line

Team’s depth and game speed under the guidance of Ford and Calderon should be enough to repeat last year’s result.

Playoffs – yes
Championship - no

Courtesy of mikhail1973 @ www.pistonsforum.com

Season 2006/2007

Record 40-42

Team’s season left dual impression. On one hand the team finally made it to the playoffs. However, if you look at making the playoffs as the stepping stone to the future, Magic has disappointed. After showing its best and collecting wins quickly before the New Year, Brian Hill’s team became to show weaknesses. Howard showed his offensive one-sidedness. Turkoglu was playing as an independent contractor. And Jameer Nelson never became that dreaded point guard that Orlando fans had dreamed about. They got swept in the first round by Pistons.

Offseason

Draft

Nothing really to talk about here as Magic traded their first-round pick to Pistons. One of the past team draftees is still in Europe and doesn’t look like he’s every going to join the roster.

Key Trades

Signed: Rashard Lewis. Orlando signed this tall and thin (read injury-prone) sniper, paying incredible, even by NBA’s liberal standards money. Will the team get the return on the investment?
Left: Grant Hill and Darko Milicic

Offseason grade: C

Season 2007/2008

Last season, well at least in the first half, the team played pretty decent half-court offensive scheme (thanks to Grant Hill) and played organized defensively (third best opponents shooting percentage). Now without Grant and Darko team loses a lot on the defensive end. Shorter guards like Nelson, Arroyo, and Dooling are going to be struggling against Smush Parker/J-Will duo. And their division also has players like Gilbert Arenas and Joe Johnson.

What will be effective this year with the addition of Lewis? No matter how you look at it, Magic’s success will primarily depend on how Rashard will fit in with his teammates. Orlando does not have many stars and Lewis will have to produce in order for team to win. He is tall and quick with an excellent jump shot and should benefit from Howard’s play down low. However, Howard would have to see the game and react quicker to the double-teams. He struggled with turnovers all year long. And in order for Howard to be more effective, Lewis has to produce and attract more defensive efforts from the opponent leaving Howard to operate under the basket.

Now more on Howard. He is shooting 60% from the field. Lets look at how does he arrive at that high rate of success and if there is something that is a cause for concern. He attempts shots from the mid-range distance about 17% of the time (in comparison Duncan and Boozer get half of their points from there; Garnett, Jermaine O’Neal, and Elton Brand – 2/3) and he hits them at 28% clip. Every sixth his shot attempt is blocked because he can’t shoot jumpers and doesn’t get high off the ground. Everything else is dunks, offensive rebounds, and layups. That’s why his field goal percentage looks so high. His strongest and the only one-on-one move in his offensive arsenal at this time is a turn move where he dribbles with his left hand and uses right to ward off the defender. Like so:

Once the defender is behind Howard throws the ball through the hoop. This is an effective move, but not against everyone because it is all so redundant

You are going to hear a question posed by many basketball fans – “How about Shaq? Didn’t he reach success without a shot?” When he was 21, O’Neal averaged 30 points per game and he did it several times a season against the likes of David Robinson, Patrick Ewing, and Hakeem Olajuwon. Howard, being the same age, averages 17 points and he has to go against the likes of Brandon Haywood and Nenad Krstic.

I don’t think Howard will ever be like O’Neal. He doesn’t have that size and that type of strength. As one Russian sports forum member rightly noticed: players like O’Neal only come around once every 100 years, and players like Howard once every 10 years. Dwight needs some type of a shot to be successful.

Magic also lost one its starters to the season ending surgery. Battie is out and the team is going to struggle to replace him. This leaves Orlando even smaller all around.

Note of importance

Stan VanGundy the new coach. He left his last job under quite unpleasant circumstances – he was just told to get out of the way as not to prevent Pat Riley from doing the job. How much did it hurt his self-esteem? What can he get out of Orlando’s team this season? Who will be coach’s favorite and lead the team? I guess we’ll get all the answers in the next 10 months.

Bottom Line

6th-9th place in the conference look about right.
Playoffs – maybe
Championship - no

Courtesy of mikhail1973 @ www.pistonsforum.com

Season 2006/2007

Record 41-41

Songaila, Butler, Arenas, and Jamison – all missed parts of the season with Butler and Arenas missing the most important time. The team kind of rolled into the playoffs by virtue of accumulating wins early when most of the core players were healthy and then was soundly beaten in the first round by LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers.

Offseason

Draft

Nick Young and Dominic McGuire. Young looks more exciting and should be able to help the team right away. He is a classic 2. He has a decent shot, good ball handling skills. He has an ability to get open and moves well without the ball.

Offseason grade: C

Season 2007/2008

Washington is one of the three or four NBA teams that play distinct attacking game. The others are Mike D’Antony’s Phoenix Suns, Don Nelson’s “Golden State Warriors”, and to the less extent George Karl’s Denver Nuggets. However, Eddie Jordan’s Wizards are a different story. And not in a good way. There’s probably not another team in the league that has more problem with big man that can play. Phoenix has Amare, Denver has Camby and Nene, even Golden State has Biedrins and Harrington (arguably).

But Washington has a huge hole at 4 and 5. The team has two players that are filling the center who are hopeless: Ethan Thomas (looks like out for the year after an open heart surgery), who is less hopeless and Brendan Haywood, who is totally hopeless. They look nothing like one another, but their effectiveness is about the same as if they were basketball twins. One can also add their constant fighting to the list. Now looks like Haywood has the position all to himself. The team is going to also use 6’11” Andray Blatche (who just recently had some legal issues) and 7’ Oleksiy Pecherov (to the less extent) to fill the void created by Thomas’s condition.

Besides those, Wizards have Jamison who doesn’t like to play close to the basket; he doesn’t like to fight for rebounds and prefers to play a long distance game. Last two seasons he and Butler gathered the most rebounds for the team, just because someone has to do it.

If Wizards bigs could just play solid D, regardless of their offensive output, the team could be challenging for the conference crown. However, today even such an uninspiring tandem of Ilgauskas and Gooden averages these numbers against the Wizards: 33.5pts, 60%fg, 22rbs. Unless this improves, Washington is going to struggle trying to win in the playoffs.

Trio of Arenas-Butler-Jamison is what makes this team go. Especially Arenas. He scored winning baskets, he had incredible short periods during the games, and he was team’s leader. However. It is easier promise 50-point games than actually score those points. At some point during the last season, Arena’s irrational part was overshadowing his great game. It wasn’t quite as noticeable during the games (games with 1-8 from 3-pt line are norm for him), but the public opinion of “Agent 0” went downhill. Why is this guy making so much noise? Did he lead his team beyond the second round of the play-offs? Those are the questions that have been asked by the basketball people all around.

We all know that he is extremely talented to the extent of winning the 3-pt shooting contest with one hand. But now the game needs “Agent 0 – the winner”.

Note of importance

Oleksiy Pecherov. I wasn’t able to find much info on the guy, just saw a couple of his games during the summer league. From what I read he was never hailed as the next Russian Shaq or future Magic. But he was characterized as a solid player. Most of what I read about the guy was positive. He is a workmanlike player and he is a gym rat. From what I heard he regularly spends 7-8 hrs a day in the team’s gym working on his game. He has a solid shot, doesn’t mind doing dirty work – chasing the ball, fighting for rebounds and loose balls, decent on the fast break. His main problem is his inconsistency, but that should get better with playing time.

Bottom Line

Playoffs – most likely
Championship - no

Courtesy of mikhail1973 @ www.pistonsforum.com

Season 2006/2007

Record 24-58

Boston’s season went mostly as expected. They lost to everyone and anyone and gave Pierce a chance to recover after his injuries (maybe longer than actually needed), while waiting for Greg Oden, the second coming of Bill Russell. However, the fate demolished Celtics’ castle in the sky and they didn’t get the ball #1. And they didn’t get the ball #2. And so forth and so on. Although, after Oden’s injury the jury’s out whether Boston would’ve benefited from that #1 ball.

Offseason

Draft

The team drafted Jeff Green at #5 and promptly traded him in a Ray Allen deal, and Gabe Pruitt in the second round.

Key Trades

Acquired: Boston made a lot of noise in the offseason trading half of their team for Kevin Garnett and making a splash by acquiring seven time all-star Ray Allen. Celtics also signed free agents James Posey, Scot Pollard, Eddie House, and Dahntay Jones to plug the holes created by the trades.

Left: Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, Al Jefferson, Jerald Green, and Ryan Gomez (all in KG trade to Minni), Wally Scherbiak and Delonte West (to Seattle for Allen). Allan Ray was cut.

Offseason grade: Inc

Season 2007/2008

Mr. Inside, Mr. Outside, and Mr. Pierce – how will they look together? Pierce and Allen’s game should complement each other. KG should catch second wind finally playing with partners of this level, something he never had before. There’s material for a very competitive team. But what worries Boston and its fans? The main difficulties the team is going to face are tactical adaptability, their bench, and absence of an established point guard.

Tactical adaptability you may ask – what is it and why? Well, if you look at the NBA championship teams of the last couple of decades be it Jordan’s Bulls or O’Neil’s Lakers. Even today’s San Antonio or Houston Rockets of the 90’s. Any of those teams was able to win in the play-offs playing different style during the different parts of the games. They could adapt to what their opponent did and could find key weaknesses and exploit them. It could have been surprisingly stingy defense by Lakers during the deciding minutes, or shower of 3-pointers by Rockets, even an unexpected fast-break by slow-by-nature Pistons team, or lessons of early offense that Spurs gave to Suns during the two games at Phoenix during the 2005 play-offs.

The contending team should be able to choose its style of play depending on the pieces in place, but by definition it can’t be one-dimensional. Such a team is destined for a failure. Today’s Boston team has three superstars, but until they learn to play together and to vary their style of play they won’t pose a threat to the NBA elite. Usually growth like that takes between 1 and 2 years while players learn each other’s games. That is why Pistons and Spurs managed to stay competitive for long periods of time due to limited changes in the player personnel and players being used to one another.

Boston has Rondo for the point guard. He is solid defensively, but has no reliable jump shot. I am not sure that Celtics need a play-maker. But they could sorely use someone with the reliable shot. And Rondo could be anything, but not a player who can consistently hit his shots.

There is another seed of doubt that is on the mind of many Celtics’ basketball fans – Doc Rivers. Can he handle this collection of stars? Does he fit the current team? Some teams need a strict specialist, others almost need a player/coach (please no Lindsey Hunter references here) who is players’ friend. Rivers could actually be a good fit with players. Current Boston stars don’t need a disciplinarian. He also has rapport with younger players. The main thing is to stay within himself and not pay attention to the media, who already started the championship talk.

Pierce will most likely remain the leader of the team. He’s the most fearless of the Big Three. And he will have the ball in his hands with the game on the line making the important decisions. He is also going to be happy finally surrounded by all-star type talent.

The bench is one of the bigger issues for the Celtics in this upcoming season. Because of the salary cap restrictions and limited availability and time frame, Danny Ainge was able to sign outcasts that couldn’t find their place with other teams. It doesn’t look like they have anyone even remotely resembling a sixth man of the year candidate. One can’t expect much from the likes of Pollard and Scalabrine. The only couple of players that can actually contribute are Posey and Tony Allen. House is a streaky shooter, so the team can’t count on him game in and game out. Batista only shown his potential, but nothing indicating that he is going to come in and contribute.

Note of importance

Tony Allen. The only one retained after the trades besides Pierce, Rivers, and Ainge. He has good hops and good moves, he’s also very active. He is an outstanding in your face defensively. He missed most of the 2006/07 season after getting himself injured trying to dunk the ball well after the referee’s blown the whistle.

Bottom Line

40+ wins in the improving Eastern conference. Could get as high as 50
Playoffs – yes
Championship - no