Human Victory Cigar

From Luke Slippywalker @ Pistonforum.com

A recurring theme among all the game threads here at Pistonsforum.com is Age. Playing our athletic youngsters; overplaying our aging core; relying on older veterans; matching up with a young opponent; it all boils down to the same thing. So with round one tucked away, I thought it’d be interesting to look at our age/minute distribution versus the regular season.

The previous article outlined how we did as well as could be expected of a top seeded playoff team in distributing minutes to our younger guys. Below is the regular season distribution of total minutes.

No surprises. Each starter got roughly 12% of the total minutes. Five other players got smaller slices of the pie and the rest came and went. The average age per minute was calculated by multiplying the age by the percentage of minutes and came out to 29.1.

In the playoffs, we see a higher distribution of minutes among the top players and a shortening of the rotation as illustrated below.

Despite the shift, the team’s average age increased to 29.3. Taking in to account the variances (this wasn’t rocket science…or even quasi-science), it’s really not much at all. One would think that increasing the minutes played by the over 30 gang and the perceived switch to Hunter and Ratliff would tip the scales a little more. However, it was Stuckey and Maxiell spearheading the youth infusion. Both got roughly 50% more of the share of minutes than they did in the regular season.

There were a lot of factors contributing to the results: the extended garbage time in some games, McDyess’ injury opening a door for Maxiell, the demotion of Hayes, the fact that everyone is older now than at the start of the season. However, taken as a whole, it still all boils down to age, and it seems that the Pistons remain relatively consistent in that regard.

From Luke Slippywalker @ Pistonforum.com

After last years disappointing loss, the Pistons organization declared three goals for this season: reduce the starters minutes, develop its youth, and find a scoring option off the bench. As the starters stayed in games many fans thought they shouldn’t have, it was easy to get the feeling that this was business as usual all over again. Fellow forumite BillLaimbeer compared the minutes per game versus other championship teams so this time we’re going to step back and take a look at the total minutes played and see how we did.

Aside from McDyess who went from sub to starter, we’ve got a general reduction in minutes. Rasheed’s minutes are roughly the same but we see roughly 10% reduction in overall minutes for Rip and Tayshaun. Chauncey had the same total minutes but sat out eight more games in ’06-’07. Is this enough? If you even believed the tired legs reasoning for last year’s collapse, Bill’s piece highlighted that we’re in line with other championship teams. So for goal #1, reducing the starters minutes, we’re going to check that off.

Rookies Afflalo and Stuckey got significantly more minutes than any other doughnut fetching first year player of the Going to work era…except for Mehmet Okur. Aside from Okur, no rookie got more that 450 minutes - that includes Prince and Delfino. Milicic’s career minutes for the Pistons doesn’t even come close to Afflalo’s first year total. If you add in Amir’s 764 minutes which is comparable to a Delfino and Maxiell’s developing seasons, it’s a wonder they were able to find the time for all three. While you can argue that more time would have been more beneficial, the team is trying to balance winning and development. This year, over all previous years, the staff has managed to do just that. Goal #2. Check.

Dumars spent the offseason looking for a scoring punch to come off the bench to keep the team from bogging down while the starters sat. The answer was the affordable Jarvis Hayes. Hayes is your typical Dumars’ diamond in the rough player. He’s got the college/ lottery pedigree. He’s gone through some unfortunate events and hasn’t lived up to his potential and he’s cheap. Sure he can’t shut down Yi Jianlian any better than a sofa recliner but after watching uber athlete Mo Evans spot up for three and Delfino spot up for nothing, you had to figure our expectations were roughly the same. Ok so he’s better than Carlos but so is like 90% of the NBA and probably 75% of the NBDL. I like Hayes but, by the numbers, we’re going to have to say: Goal #3….brrrrt.

Well there it is. With Maxiell emerging as a bona fide bench presence, we’re in as good a position as we’ve been in years. Will it be enough to git er done? That’s what the playoffs are all about.

Introduction
Enough of the 2007 / 2008 NBA season has elapsed for me to evaluate the best of the best by position and to put up a candidate for league MVP. The approach, like all things statsprocket-ish, is empirical (at least up to the end), statistical, and semi-complicated. Briefly, what I’ve done to rank players is described below. As always, thanks must go to www.dougstats.com for providing NBA stats in formats easy to drop into Excel.

The ranking methodology…

• Select all players who have appeared in more than 50 games
• Rank by total Sprocket Points generated and select the top 50
• Create three Sprocket Points based ranking for each player…
• Rank by count of Sprocket Points for a measure of total statistical production
• Rank by percent of team Sprocket Points for a measure of how important the player is to his team
• Rank by relative production, the ratio of % of Team Sprocket Points to % of Team Minutes to distinguish players who produce more just because they play a lot of minutes
• Weight and average the three rankings for a final measure
• Weights are 0.4 for the first ranking, 0.2 for the second, and 0.4 for the third

(The tables in each section below show all of the measures used and the final ranking and include all player’s in the league’s top fifty.)

Point Guards

It’s either a bad year for point guards or Chris Paul is simply too good for everyone else. No other guard is even close. CP3 ranks 4^th among the top 50 players in Sprocket Points produced, 4^th in percent of team Sprocket Points, and has a productivity index (% Sprocket Points / % Team Minutes) of 161 which is 6^th best in the league. Kidd, Nash, Davis, and Williams round out the top five, but are a clear step down. Add in the Hornets overall team record and there really is no doubt about who’s having the best year.

Calderon is having a surprisingly good year and if he were playing the same number of minutes as the other top guards (assuming no drop off in production), would probably have cracked the top five. The Piston’s Billups is not having a bad year at all, but just isn’t the kind of player who generates as much on the court, and is playing the second fewest minutes (!!!) of any point guard among the league’s top 50.

Shooting Guards
Although not quite as clear as the point guard ranking, Kobe Bryant does stand alone at the top of the shooting guard ranking. In general shooting guards do not contribute a huge share of overall team Sprocket Points (tend not to generate assists, blocks, or rebounds, but tend to turn the ball over and to shoot a lower percentage than other positions). If you also consider team record, no one else comes close.

Roy is having an extraordinary year for a second year shooting guard, but many of the other top rated players are on bad teams – Wade, Carter, Iguodala, and Johnson. More top shooting guards are on bad teams than any other position.

Small Forwards
Nothing much to say here. Lebron James dominates his position more than any other player at any other position. Like him or hate him, he plays 14% of the minutes for the Cavs and produces 23.2% of their statistical productivity, for a gaudy Productivity Index of 166 – 66% more productivity per minute than the average NBA player. LBJ plays forty-one minutes a game (tied with Joe Johnson for the most minutes played of the top 50) and produces 47.7 Sprocket Points per game, ranked number one among the top 50.

He is the only small forward in the top thirty-nine players of the top fifty. Perhaps with the recent trade his share of team production will fall a bit, but it’s so far down to the second best small forward that James will still dominate the ranking.

Power Forwards
Often players are omitted from MVP type rankings because they play on bad teams. So, how about Marion who gets traded to a bad team mid-season? And is he a four or a three anyway? In any event, Garnett is more productive overall and has a productivity index a few points higher. Marion has a higher share of overall team productivity, but he doesn’t play with Allen and Pierce either (though at least part of the season with Nash and Stoudemire). If you consider the Celtics record and all the other things that Garnett brings to the game that never end up in the stat sheets, then it really isn’t close. KG is still #1. Boozer gets an honorable mention with a very strong season, but not a top tier one.

Centers
And last, the closest ranking of them all. I think you can make a case for any of the top three. Howard does as much with the minutes he plays as any other player with the top Productivity Index rank (though only fractions of a point higher than Duncan and James). He is the most important player to his team among the top fifty, accounting for nearly 27% of the Magic’s statistical production. (And it’s not as if no one else on the team is any good – Turkoglu is the 4^th best small forward this year.)

Duncan isn’t nicknamed the Big Fundamental for nothing. He’s so solid you could build a house on him, and that’s pretty much what San Antonio has done. In fewer minutes than any of the top three he’s the fifth best in the top 50 in total Sprocket Points, and in a virtual tie for first with Howard on the Productivity Index. His rank of 9^th on % of Team Sprocket Points probably says more about the balance and productivity of the Spurs than anything else.

Many wouldn’t put Camby in this ranking, but I think his performance this year forces the issue. He has played in 62 of the Nuggets’ 64 games and averaged over 35 minutes per game. He is second in the league in total Sprocket Points, only trailing James by 2.8 per game. He is 5^th best in share of team Sprocket Points despite playing with Anthony and Iverson who have the ball in their hands most of the time. He does slightly less with his time on the court (Productivity Index of 160) than the other top centers, but is still 8^th best among the top 50.

All considered though, I think the decision is between Howard and Duncan. Camby has had an extraordinary season so far, but no one would take him over either of the other two to build a team around, and he does rank third among the three. Add to that Denver will not (at this point), in a travesty of the rules, make the playoffs, and Camby must drop out.

For the Productivity Index Howard and Duncan are within 0.1 index points, so that’s a tie in my book. Duncan is a good step down in terms of % of Team Sprocket Points, but then Howard doesn’t play with Parker and Genobli. If Duncan were to play Howard’s minutes without a drop-off in production, he would rank higher in total Sprocket Points. If he were to play James’ minutes with only a small drop-off, he would lead the league in Sprocket Points. The Spurs’ record is very similar to the Magic (44-22 and 44-24 at this point), but they play in a much tougher conference. Put it all together and think Duncan gets the nod.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the rankings is Al Jefferson who is having probably the strongest year of any player you never hear about – and stronger than most you do hear about. Maybe the coming Spring thaw will motivate a national sports writer or two to head north to the Twin Cities. One more year to go on his contract and after that Al becomes the biggest free agent deal going (big sign and trade deal this Summer?).

League MVP
Now it gets tough. James, Duncan, Paul, Garnett, and Bryant, and only one trophy.

• Kobe has to be the sentimental choice. He has never won the MVP and is perhaps the scariest guy in the league with the ball and the game on the line. The Lakers have the most wins of any team of the final five other than Boston, but Odom has been solid, Bynum was playing at a level that would have put in contention for best center, and Gasol has been reborn since heading west. But, he is the only one in the top five with not in the top ten in at least two of the key rankings. Best heart.
• Garnett is playing perhaps his best basketball and the force of his personality has melded the Celtics into a real team. Even with Pierce and Allen, perhaps in spite of Pierce and Allen, I’d argue Garnett has done the best job of team leadership of any in the top five. It could well depend on whether you think the MVP has to dominate his team’s production, which Garnett has not. Best leader.
• Paul is very consistent across the rankings, 4^th, 4^th, and 6^th. And the Hornets are only one game out of first place in the tough West without another star name on the roster, though the same could be said for the Lakers and the Cavs. Most consistent.
• Duncan is hard to ignore. His team is winning and he does as much with his time on the floor as any other player. No weaknesses.
• And finally, there is James – ranked the best of the bunch, but taking 41 minutes a game to do it in. And playing on the worst team in the group, with arguably the weakest supporting cast (at least until the trade). Most dominating one on one.

Knocking out Bryant, despite the fact that I’d like to see him win an MVP, isn’t too hard. His Productivity Index isn’t up to the standards of the other four. And at 38.5 MPG, at least some of his overall production comes from playing so much with relatively weak players. Garnett has subsumed his game a bit to fit in with his new team and ranks 23^rd in percent of team productivity. He isn’t dominating a good team the way Duncan, and Paul do. Sorry, KG. James has no problem dominating his team, he is the highest ranked of the five in % of Team Sprocket Points, but his team isn’t that hard to dominate, and it takes him 41 minutes per game to do it in. LBJ is out.

Duncan and Paul is a tough call. Their weighted average ranks are only 0.1 apart. If they played the same number of minutes their total Sprocket Points per game would be nearly identical. Paul has a higher share of team production – question is whether the Hornets with Paul, Stojakovic, and Chandler can be called a weaker team than the Spurs. They do have a better record playing against the same competition. I guess a tie won’t work. My MVP is Duncan.